Monday, October 03, 2005
Lineups:
Catcher: Jorge Posada (NYY, Switch .782 OPS) vs. Bengie Molina (LAA, RH .782 OPS): Both players somehow have the exact same OPS, so it’s a minor difference either way. Posada had a much better end of the season than Molina, which could mean that Molina is getting fatigued, so Jorge has the slight advantage there. But even when you consider that, Molina’s CS% is slightly better than Posada’s, which could present a problem when you consider the speed the Angels have. Minor Advantage: Angels
First Base: Jason Giambi (L, .975) vs. Darin Erstad (L, .696). Giambi was one of the top 5 hitters in the AL the entire year, which is remarkable when you consider his atrocious first 2 months. Even when he’s slumping, he walks more than anyone in the big leagues. The Angels have just one lefty starter and no lefty relievers, so watch for Giambi to make his mark on the series. Erstad is a weak link in the Angels lineup, and doesn’t provide anything special in the field to make this anywhere near close. You could also see Tino Martinez starting here, in which case Giambi would DH. Tino will be brought in as a defensive replacement later in the game. Major Advantage: Yankees
Second Base: Robinson Cano (L, .778) vs. Adam Kennedy (L, .724). Kennedy is a weak-hitting second basemen who is a very good contact hitter, but nothing more. He does steal a little (19), so watch out if he gets on. Cano hits for about the same average as Kennedy, but walks less and hits for power more. Also, walks aren’t particularly needed when you have the OBP machines that the Yankees do. Cano can occasionally make a costly error, but is beginning to have a flair for the dramatic, so I doubt we’ll see any nervousness from the rookie in the postseason. Minor Advantage: Yankees
Third Base: Alex Rodriguez (R, 1.031) vs. Chone Figgins (Switch, .749). The two players are so far from each other in offense that it doesn’t really make any sense to compare them. However, I will say that Figgins has turned into quite a Yankee-killer and could wreak havoc on the base paths (62 SB this year). Let’s not forget A-Rod’s 3 HR game of LA, though. Major Advantage: Yankees
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (R, .839) vs. Orlando Cabrera (R, .674). Cabrera has been a disappointment for LA this year, as he has done virtually nothing at the plate. He does steal (21), and is a great fielder. However, Jeter has the OBP that is so necessary as a leadoff hitter, isn’t too shabby in the field himself. He also has some power and is a legendary postseason performer. Major Advantage: Yankees
Left Field: Hideki Matsui (L, .863) vs. Juan Rivera (R, .770) Rivera has good power, but has a low OBP. Hideki didn’t have quite as good a year as many expected, but still was very solid. Matsui actually hits lefties better than righties, so he won’t benefit from the lack of lefties for LA. That still doesn’t change the fact that he is still a much better hitter than Rivera. Major Advantage: Yankees
Center Field: Bernie Williams (S, .688) vs. Steve Finley (L, .645). The battle of the aging Center Fielders. Finley improved in September after having a miserable, injury-filled year. Bernie continued his slide towards retirement. I’m going to give this one to Finley just because Finley isn’t a deathtrap in the field. Minor Advantage: Angels
Right Field: Gary Sheffield (R, .891) vs. Vladimir Gurrero (R, .959). These guys are both power-hitting, strong-armed right fielders with violent swings that make them the best two fastball hitters in the league. Vlad has a better arm and had a slightly better year, so I have to give this to him. Look for the left fielders for both teams to get a workout when they’re up. Minor Advantage: Angels
DH: Ruben Sierra (S, .636) vs. Garret Anderson (L, .743). Garret had an off year this year, continuing the slide from the All-Star MVP that he was in 2003. He can still be a great hitter, though. Ruben, however, has done nothing to suggest that he will at all contribute. My guess is that he’ll play in this series, do nothing at all, and be benched should the Yankees make it to the ALCS. Major Advantage: Angels
Overall: Clearly, this isn’t the place where the Angels have any ground on the Yankees. Gurrero is the only hitter the Yankees have to be afraid of. If they can shut down him, they shut down the entire offense. The Angels will have some tough times facing the Yankee offense. They have the pitching to potentially shut down the Yankees, but their patience will be tested as the Yankees walk an enormous amount, and you don’t want runners on base when the inevitable home run comes. Major Advantage: Yankees
Starting Pitching
Game 1 and Game 5: Mike Mussina (R, 4.41 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs. Bartolo Colon (R, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). This one isn’t at all close. The Yankees would rather have Randy Johnson start here, but had to pitch him in the final series. The Angels, as a result, get a huge break. Mussina has had just 2 starts since his injury. He was very good in one and terrible in the other. Colon has rebounded from a miserable 2004 to become a Cy Young candidate in 2005. However, he has not fared well against the Yankees this year, giving up 7 HR in 2 starts, 4 of which have come from Alex Rodriguez. Mussina had 1 good and one bad start against LA this year. Two things to watch for: Mussina’s control (if he’s just missing the strike zone consistently, it’s going to be a long night for Yankee fans) and Colon vs. A-Rod, Giambi, and Matsui (who have done outstanding against him this year). If Moose falters, there will be an Aaron Small sighting. Major Advantage: Angels
Game 2: Shawn Chacon (R, 3.40, 1.31) vs. John Lackey (R, 3.44, 1.33). Chacon has been absolutely huge for the Yankees, going 7-3 with a 2.85 after being traded. Lackey has been very important also, and has developed into a very solid number 2 starter for LA. Chacon does better against lefties, so expect him to do very well against the Angels. Lackey lives and dies on the strikeout. No matter how he does, he gets a lot of them per game. This also makes him more susceptible to deep counts and walks, 2 things that the Yankees thrive on, so expect an early move to the pen. Look for possible golden sombreros for the high strikeout hitters like Alex Rodriguez and Ruben Sierra and big nights for the low-K power hitters Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui. Minor Advantage: Yankees
Game 3: Randy Johnson (L, 3.79, 1.13), vs. Jarrod Washburn (L, 3.20, 1.33). Despite a very high ERA for Randy this year, this is a huge advantage for the Yankees. The Angels will put either put in their backups or put their lefties at the mercy of a pitcher who allowed less than a quarter of all lefties to reach base this year (and just 1 HR). He also has given up a huge amount of runs on the home run, so a low-power Angels offense will play right into his hands. Washburn has been no slouch this year either; he’s having a career year. However, he doesn’t compare to Randy Johnson. Major Advantage: Yankees
Game 4: Chien-Ming Wang (R, 4.02, 1.25) vs. Paul Byrd (R, 3.74, 1.19). Byrd was a solid performer in the number 4 slot for the Angels this year, ending the season on a high note with a 2.25 ERA in September. Byrd also walked just 1.24 men per 9 innings. Wang was arguably the Yankees most valuable player in the first half of the year, and provided a consistent start nearly every time out. A rotator cuff injury forced him out from mid-July until early September. Since his return from the DL, Wang has posted a 4.24 ERA. If he can get his sinker across, it could be a long night for the Angels offense. I’m going to give it to LA because Byrd’s stats are slightly better. Minor Advantage: Angels
Bullpen
Long Relief: If one of the starters gets forced out early, it’ll be up to these guys. Expect to see Aaron Small of the Yankees pitch a lot. He somehow went 10-0, a feat which had only been accomplished by just a few others. Another guy you can expect to see out of the Yankees bullpen is Jaret Wright. If this happens, run, don’t walk. Since he got hit on the collarbone in mid-September, he’s been extremely ineffective. On the Angels side, there’s Ervin Santana, who’s been a bit inconsistent, but has some great pitches and could possibly shut the Yankees down. Kevin Gregg will come in for a couple innings if things get really bad. EVEN
Middle Relief: The Yankees’ week point. They’ve struggled with this all year. Tanyon Sturtze has been ineffective for a while, and the Wayne Franklins of the world won’t help much either. Embree has been pretty bad as a lefty specialist and Felix Rodriguez has terrible control. They’ll try Al Leiter as a lefty out of the pen, but it probably won’t have great results. The Angels, on the other hand, have great middle relief. Brendan Donnelly has rebounded from a 2004 which was marred by a bizarre nosebleed injury to become an effective arm again. Kelvim Escobar has been outstanding since returning from injury. Esteban Yan makes up the back end, and isn’t terrible. Major Advantage: Angels
Setup Man: Tom Gordon (81.2 IP, 2.57, 1.09) vs. Scot Shields (90.2, 2.78, 1.14). They’re both among the best in the league, and we’ll likely see Gordon closing for another team next year. Gordon was terribly ineffective in the postseason last year, but that was logging after over 90 innings. He should be better next year. Shields is an absolute workhorse, and there’s a good chance we’ll see him in all of the games. I’ll give it to Gordon because Shields doesn’t have good numbers against some of the Yankees. Minor Advantage: Yankees
Closer: Mariano Rivera (78, 1.38, .87) vs. Francisco Rodriguez (66.1, 2.71, 1.16). Mariano came off one of his best seasons, if not his best, ever, which is saying something if you’re talking about arguably the greatest closer of all time. He also didn’t pitch that often in the past couple weeks (3.1 IP since September 22nd), so he should be well rested. K-Rod is one of the best as well, and most of the time is overpowering (an astounding 12.08 K/9), but can be a little wild, which goes a long way with the Yankees. What it comes down to is that there’s no one you’d rather have on the mound than Mo. Minor Advantage Yankees
